China semiconductor regulation 'double -edged sword'.

The United States has further announced high-intensity regulations that prohibit semiconductor equipment and AI semiconductor exports to China. It is intended to block China's semiconductor. Samsung Electronics and SK Unix, which have factories in China, are expected to be directly damaged immediately as they are separately screened.

However, in the long term, China is likely to reduce IT and data center investment as China cannot secure cutting-edge semiconductor technology. As a result, domestic memory exports are feared.

** Ban, prohibit semiconductor technology exports...

The US Department of Commerce Industry and Security (BIS) announced additional regulations on the Chinese semiconductor industry on the 7th (local time). This action will take effect from the 21st of this month.

In the future, production equipment and software related to DRAM below 18 nm, NAND flash of 128 or more, and less than 14 nm logic chips (non-memory chips) are prohibited to export to China. Applied Materials (MAT), Lam Research, and LA, a global top five semiconductor equipment maker, will not be able to supply equipment to China in the future.

The measures are expected to damage China's Yangtze Memory Technology (MTC) and Chang sin Memory Technology (CXMT). Recently, MTC produces 128-long 3D NAND production and CXMT produces 17 nm process DRAM. The United States plans to block these companies to the advanced process.

Fortunately, Samsung Electronics and SK Unix decided to apply a separate screening, so there will be no direct damage for the time being. Samsung Electronics has a NAND flash plant in Xi'an in China and a foam (test, packaging) factory in Suzhou. SK Unix has an Sushi DRAM plant and foundry (8-inch) plant, and Dalian has a NAND flash plant acquired by Intel.

In addition, the US artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor is also impossible to export 28 supercomputers. NVIDIA, AMD's graphics processing device (GPU), and the like. High-end GPUs produced in third countries are also impossible to export without the permission of the United States.

It is possible to maintain the gap between China and semiconductor technology… Concerns about decreasing from 60%of China's exports

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced on the 8th, the day after the US export regulation announcement, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced that it will have a limited impact on the domestic industry. The Ministry of Industry said, Samsung Electronics and SK Unix Plant, which are operating in China, are classified as a review by case, unlike Chinese companies. There will be no short-term effects because there is no production.

In the semiconductor industry, Samsung Electronics and SK Unix's Chinese factories are expected to be supplied with semiconductor equipment without any problems.

Samsung Electronics and SK Unix account for 70%share in the global memory market, of which Samsung produces 38%of NAND in China, while SK Unix makes half of NAND production and half of DRAM in China. If both Chinese factories are not supplied with semiconductor equipment on time, memory production decreases, the United States may have difficulty supplying memory.

Kim Hyung-jun, head of the next-generation intelligent semiconductor project, said, If the US is not supplied with memory from Samsung Electronics and SK Unix, it will be hit by the IT business. Said. He added, We will have to watch separate screening criteria and results, but for the time being, the two companies will not be disrupted in producing semiconductors in China.

On the contrary, there is an analysis that this regulation can be an opportunity for domestic companies because it can widen the technology gap with China.

Do Byung-soo, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, The additional regulation of the United States will be blocked by the production of advanced node chips in Chinese companies such as SMIC, MTC, and CXMT., TSMC, etc. in the long run.

Kim Hyung-jun said, Korea is strong in the foundry advanced process, but Chinese foundry company SMIC has been hit by the market by securing many fabless companies in China as a client., It can be advantageous to domestic companies.

However, in the long term, domestic semiconductor companies are likely to reduce exports to China.

China has used GPUs to create a supercomputer and data center server, and domestic memory has been used here. This is because the export of domestic memory can also be reduced if the server production is reduced due to the GPU supply shortage in China. 60%of Korea's semiconductor exports account for China (40%, Hong Kong 20%).

Domestic startups that create AI semiconductor Opus for data centers are unlikely to replace the US GPU.

Kim said, The majority of domestic AI semiconductor companies are making semiconductors using the US design tool (EDA), and it will prevent the US from exporting AI semiconductors made using its own EDA to China. In other words, it is also impossible to export domestic AI semiconductors to China. He then advised that domestic AI startups should try to supply to markets outside China.